Tech job postings are up and tech jobs are down: what the paradox means for your next hire
Juan Molina ยท
IT postings are at a three-year high while tech employment falls. Why 'there's plenty of talent out there' is the wrong conclusion for anyone hiring specialists right now.
Two headlines from the same week seem to contradict each other.
The first: tech talent demand is at a three-year high. CompTIA's September data shows 625,633 active IT job postings, up 22.4% from a year earlier, with 272,040 new openings in the month (Workforce Observer, October 11, 2026).
The second, from the same data: tech sector employment fell by 10,350 positions in September, and tech occupations across all industries lost 6,000.
So which is it? Is the market hot or cold? For anyone hiring, the answer matters, because it shapes how you write the role, how fast you move and what you offer.
Both are true, for different roles
The demand isn't spread evenly. CompTIA points to software, cybersecurity and data as the skills in highest demand. And active postings that require AI skills are up 282% since May 2024 (Workforce Observer).
Developer data from Indeed tells the same story from another angle. US developer openings rose almost 15% from February 2025, but senior roles made up 71% of the growth, and roles with AI in the title made up 37% (UA.News, reporting CNBC and Indeed Hiring Lab, October 11, 2026).
Put together, the picture is clear. Companies are cutting some general and routine tech roles while competing harder for specialized, senior and AI-skilled people. The layoffs headlines and the hiring headlines describe two different markets.
The candidates feel the gap too
On the other side of the table, tech professionals don't feel a hot market. In a Dice survey of 1,105 US tech workers, more than three-quarters said job opportunities aren't materializing, even though postings are up 18% year over year (CIO Dive, October 9, 2026). More than a quarter said job descriptions include unrealistic qualifications, and 21% said employers now expect a broader range of technical skills than before. 75% of US tech postings now ask for AI skills.
That's the paradox in practice. Employers see a shortage, candidates see no real openings, and the job description sits in the middle, asking for too much.
4 things this means for your next hire
1. Don't assume layoffs mean easy hiring. If you're hiring for software, data, security or AI-related roles, the layoff headlines don't describe your market. The people you want are the ones every company is competing for.
2. Write the role for one person, not three. When a quarter of candidates call qualifications unrealistic, a long wish list doesn't raise the bar. It just shrinks the pool. Separate what the person must do in the first year from what would be nice. Hire for the first list.
3. Be specific about AI. If 75% of postings ask for AI skills, "AI experience" alone tells candidates nothing. Say what the person will actually do with AI: build with it, integrate it, evaluate it or govern it. Specific roles attract specific people.
4. Answer the stability question. Dice found job stability is now the most common reason tech professionals leave a job, after pay (CIO Dive). In a market full of layoff news, tell candidates how the role is funded, why it exists and where it's going. That can win a candidate who is weighing several offers.
The short version
The tech labor market isn't hot or cold. It's split. General roles are being trimmed while specialized, senior and AI-skilled roles are harder to fill than ever. The companies that hire well right now:
- read the market for their specific role, not the headline;
- write realistic job descriptions;
- are precise about AI;
- give candidates a clear reason to trust the role.
If you're hiring software, data, security or AI talent and want a second view on how to approach the market, you can book a 15-minute call.
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